Everything you need to know about the new South Cotswolds constituency

As currently set up, the constituency stretches from just west of Bath, wrapping around Corsham and Chippenham, all the way to Marston Meysey near Cirencester, taking in Malmesbury, Cricklade, Royal Wootton Bassett and Minety.

But at the next election it will have become South Cotswolds also including areas near Wotton such as Kingswood, Hillesley, Alderley, Ozleworth as well as Castle Combe. 

It means the village of Kingswood and nearby town of Wotton - which has been included in the new Stroud constituency - will be divided into two separate constituencies.

Elsewhere the constituency has also relinquished a large swathe of its southern area, with Calne, Lyneham and Royal Wootton Bassett all forming the constituency of Chippenham.

Instead, to meet the criteria for the correct size the constituency will also pick up the southern parts of the old Cotswold constituency, including Cirencester, Tetbury and Kemble in Gloucestershire.

It means the MP who wins the seat might be considered the representative of King Charles, as his Highgrove home near Tetbury is in the new South Cotswolds patch.

Map showing all the wards included in new South Cotswolds constituency (Image: Boundary Commission for England)

The combination of the southern half of The Cotswolds constituency, which has been a Conservative stronghold since its creation in 1997, and the northern half of North Wiltshire, which has been an equally easy win for the Conservatives since its creation in 1983, would appear to suggest this seat can be confidently put into the blue column.

But with Rishi Sunak’s government struggling in the polls and at by-elections, the prospect of a Conservative hold, while likely, is not certain.

The new South Cotswolds constituency (in white) includes villages in the area such as Kingswood, Hillesley, Alderley, Ozleworth and Castle Combe (Image: Boundary Commission for England)

Who are the candidates? 

So far three candidates have been announced for the constituency, James Gray for the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats’ Dr Ros Savage and Brendan Wilde for Reform UK.

Pollsters YouGov have crunched some numbers based on the 2019 election results, and they predict that the Conservative MP for North Swindon, Mr Gray would hold it.

But the pollsters give Mr Gray a 35 per cent vote share, way down on the high 50s and 60 per cent shares he took in the last three elections, and down on his worst performance, winning in 1997 as a new candidate when he took the seat with 44 per cent of the vote.

In YouGov’s model the Liberal Democrat candidate Dr Roz Savage would be Mr Gray’s closest challenger - she is predicted a 27 per cent share of the vote.

Labour comes third with 20 per cent. Reform UK is allocated nine per cent and the Green Party seven per cent.

Tactical voting by voters who lean towards the Green, Liberal Democrat and Labour parties could see a combination of votes enough to defeat Mr Gray’s 35 per cent, and according to You Gov, if he took all of Reform’s nine per cent, that would take him to 44 per cent.

That’s normally enough to win a seat with multiple candidates under first past the post – but it’s not impregnable, especially if tactical voting becomes common.

The general election must be held by 28 January 2025, which is 25 working days after the fifth anniversary of the first meeting of this Parliament- 17 December 2019.

After revoking the law that fixes Parliamentary terms to five years, the Conservative government put the power to dissolve Parliament and call an election back into the hands of the Prime Minister.

As the date by which the next election must be called approaches speculation mounts as to when it might be. In January the PM Rishi Sunak  said he expected to call in in “the second half” of 2024.